In this video, we provide a comprehensive statistical analysis of Paul Manafort’s 47-Month Sentence imposed on March 7, 2019 in the Eastern District of Virginia by Judge Ellis.  As we discuss, Mr. Manafort received the largest downward variance ever for anyone sentenced under 2S1.3.  It also is nearly unprecedented for anyone sentenced with the same total offense level and criminal history regardless of Guideline.  We then discuss the likelihood of success on appeal should the government decide to challenge the substantive reasonableness of the sentence.